Do not stop saving because “you could die any day, so spending it all sooner will make you happier”: roughly nine in ten 30-year-olds can reach 60

No money needed. When the thought “I could be gone any day anyway” comes up, first consider your probability of reaching 60. The hard part is that people around you say the same thing, and what you want to buy is right in front of you.

First, consider how long people can live. The World Health Organization’s Global Health Observatory produced a life table for China for 2023. A life table estimates how long a group of people would live using the mortality rates at each age in that year. Under this table, a 30-year-old has a 92.0% probability of reaching 60 (89.2% for men, 94.9% for women). The probability of reaching 65 is 87.4% (83.0% for men, 92.0% for women), and of reaching 80 is 55.6% (45.8% for men, 66.1% for women). These three sets of figures were calculated by dividing the numbers of survivors at the relevant ages in the table. People who reach 65 have an average of another 17.5 years of life. Next, consider people’s own estimates. A study published in The Journal of Finance in 2019 asked people in a survey to estimate how long they would live. It found that young people underestimated their survival probabilities, while older people overestimated them. An earlier working paper gave this example: a 28-year-old man’s actual probability of surviving the next 5 years was 99.4%, but his own estimate was 92.8%. The authors put people’s subjective probabilities into a standard model of saving and spending over a lifetime. Compared with calculations using actual mortality rates, young people saved 26% less and retirees spent down their savings 27% more slowly. In the survey, people with more distorted mortality beliefs also deviated more in their saving behavior, even after accounting for risk preferences, cognitive ability and family circumstances. The authors suggest that one reason is that people place too much weight on rare, memorable ways of dying.

World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory. Life tables: lx - number of people left alive at age x, China, 2023（指标 LIFE_0000000031）. https://ghoapi.azureedge.net/api/LIFE_0000000031?$filter=SpatialDim%20eq%20'CHN'%20and%20TimeDim%20eq%202023；World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory. Life tables: ex - expectation of life at age x, China, 2023（指标 LIFE_0000000035）. https://ghoapi.azureedge.net/api/LIFE_0000000035?$filter=SpatialDim%20eq%20'CHN'%20and%20TimeDim%20eq%202023；Heimer RZ, Myrseth KOR, Schoenle RS (2019). YOLO: Mortality Beliefs and Household Finance Puzzles. The Journal of Finance, 74(6), 2957-2996. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12828；Heimer RZ, Myrseth KOR, Schoenle RS (2016). YOLO: Mortality Beliefs and Household Finance Puzzles. SSRN 工作稿（28 岁男性那个例子出自这一版）. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2749543

Reasons for grade B. The life table is a WHO model estimate, not a National Bureau of Statistics release. “Save 26% less” is from the model, not from following real people. Estimating lifespan is only one study; there is no citeable Chinese counterpart. “Most people need to save for living into old age” is the author’s inference from chances of reaching 60 and 80, not a study conclusion. Benefit magnitude set to medium, following Item 23 in this section (don’t expect shopping to improve mood). Under-saving may reach the 10000-yuan level, but there is no number for what it buys back, so it is not recorded as large. The same study also found older people overestimate how long they will live and draw savings too slowly, so this item is mainly for young and middle-aged people. This does not oppose spending on things and experiences you like; what to stop is the single reason “anyway I’ll die.” When accident or serious illness hits, what helps is an emergency fund and insurance — Section 5, Item 27 (emergency fund) and Section 5, Item 39 (insure losses you cannot carry). If someone lives on your income: Section 5, Item 40 (term life). Ordering when mood is low: Item 23 in this section. The beneficiary is you.