26Evidence A

Don’t expect skipping breakfast or the 16:8 intermittent fasting schedule to help you control your weight; pick a meal timing you can stick with long‑term.

Popular belief holds that skipping breakfast leads to overeating at lunch and dinner, ultimately increasing total daily calorie intake. Randomised trials tell a different story: people who skip breakfast actually consume roughly 200 fewer kilocalories per day and tend to weigh slightly less. Compared with simply eating less, the 16:8 schedule makes no difference in weight after a year. Long‑term breakfast skippers do have about a 17% higher risk of cardiovascular disease; overall mortality shows no notable change. The absolute number of excess cardiovascular events is 1.42 per 100,000 people per year.

Cost

No cost at all. What you save is the mental energy you’d o…

Benefit

Let’s examine the claim that skipping breakfast makes you eat more later. One meta‑analysis combined results f…

Cost

No cost at all. What you save is the mental energy you’d otherwise spend worrying about when to eat.

Benefit

Let’s examine the claim that skipping breakfast makes you eat more later. One meta‑analysis combined results from 13 randomised trials. Participants who ate breakfast consumed 259.79 kcal more per day than those who skipped it (95% CI 78.87–440.71). Their weight was also 0.44 kg higher (95% CI 0.07–0.82). In other words, breakfast skippers did not compensate by eating more at later meals. These studies had relatively short follow‑ups – an average of 7 weeks for weight and 2 weeks for calorie intake. Turning to the 16:8 approach, a trial involving 116 overweight adults lasted 12 weeks. Those limited to eating between noon and 8 pm lost 0.26 kg less than participants who ate three regular meals per day (95% CI −1.30 to 0.78), a non‑significant difference. Another study in Guangzhou followed 139 obese patients for a full year; adding time‑restricted eating to calorie restriction yielded only 1.8 kg extra weight loss compared with calorie restriction alone (95% CI −4.0 to 0.4), again not statistically significant. Finally, regarding long‑term effects, a pooled analysis of 2.38 million people showed a 17% higher risk of cardiovascular disease among breakfast skippers (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.09–1.26) and a 49% higher risk of cardiovascular death (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.20–1.84). However, these data come from observational studies without randomisation; the original long‑term study (17–23 years follow‑up) reported an all‑cause mortality OR of 1.19, which comfortably includes 1, indicating no real difference.

Original sources

Sievert K, Hussain SM, Page MJ, 等 (2019). Effect of breakfast on weight and energy intake: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. BMJ. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l42;Lowe DA, Wu N, Rohdin-Bibby L, 等 (2020). Effects of Time-Restricted Eating on Weight Loss and Other Metabolic Parameters in Women and Men With Overweight and Obesity. JAMA Internal Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.4153;Liu D, Huang Y, Huang C, 等 (2022). Calorie Restriction with or without Time-Restricted Eating in Weight Loss. New England Journal of Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2114833;Zhang H, Zhang S, Liu Y, 等 (2025). The association between skipping breakfast and cardiovascular disease: a meta analysis. Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine. https://doi.org/10.3389/fcvm.2025.1565806;Rong S, Snetselaar LG, Xu G, 等 (2019). Association of Skipping Breakfast With Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality. Journal of the American College of Cardiology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2019.01.065;Fernandes-Alves D, Teixeira GP, Guimarães KC, Crispim CA (2026). Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials Comparing Time-Restricted Eating With and Without Caloric Restriction for Weight Loss. Nutrition Reviews. https://doi.org/10.1093/nutrit/nuaf053;Sun T, Zhang L, Lu Y, 等 (2024). Non-linear relationship between the first meal time of the day and gallstone incidence in American adults. Frontiers in Nutrition. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnut.2024.1521707;Liu T, Wang Y, Wang X, 等 (2023). Habitually Skipping Breakfast Is Associated with the Risk of Gastrointestinal Cancers: Evidence from the Kailuan Cohort Study. Journal of General Internal Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-023-08094-7

Open source link
Book note

This topic remains controversial. The 17% cardiovascular risk figure stems from observational data that do not control for confounding factors; breakfast skippers are more likely to smoke, drink, be sedentary, and have lower incomes, so it’s unclear how much of that risk is truly attributable to skipping breakfast. The all‑cause mortality result also hovers around 1, meaning no clear effect. On the 16:8 front, a combined analysis of 30 trials with 1,341 participants found that, when calorie intake was equal, time‑restricted eating led to an extra 1.46 kg weight loss (95% CI −2.65 to −0.26), but at the cost of losing 0.41 kg more lean mass. Most trials were short‑term; the longest and most rigorous 12‑month study found no difference. Prolonged fasting may also affect the gallbladder: a cross‑sectional survey of 6,547 people showed that each hour later the first meal is eaten raises the odds of gallstones by 5% (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02–1.08); those whose first meal occurs between 9 am and 2 pm have a 49% higher risk (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.24–1.77). The underlying mechanism is that bile stays in the gallbladder longer, facilitating stone formation; however, the study is observational and cannot prove causation. In China’s Kailuan cohort, 369 cases of digestive‑tract cancer were tracked for 5.6 years; breakfast skippers faced a 2.32‑fold higher risk of colorectal cancer (95% CI 1.34–4.01) and a 5.43‑fold higher risk of gallbladder and extra‑hepatic bile‑duct cancer (95% CI 1.34–21.93). The wide confidence interval for the latter reflects very few events, so it should be regarded as a tentative signal rather than a firm conclusion. Putting all this together, meal timing has only a modest impact on weight control; don’t waste mental energy on it. As for the long‑term health effects of skipping breakfast, current evidence is purely associative and does not prove causation, though the trend leans unfavourable. For safety, simply eat regular meals – don’t rely on breakfast omission for weight loss. Note that gastritis and peptic ulcers are caused mainly by Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic NSAID use; see Section 1, Item 23 for testing and eradication. If an ultrasound reveals gallstones but causes no pain, see Section 1, Item 20 for guidance on avoiding preventive surgery. Proven strategies for weight control are centred on diet composition and portion size: see Section 2, Items 28 (five servings of fruit and vegetables daily), 29 (limiting ultra‑processed foods) and 33 (maintaining a BMI between 20 and 25). People with diabetes, those on hypoglycaemic medication, or pregnant women should not skip meals, as it may provoke hypoglycaemia; follow medical advice instead. Extreme fasting or self‑induced vomiting are separate issues; see Section 28, Item 1 for appropriate guidance.

My note