01Evidence A

Getting to know more people rather than fixating on just one: You can’t predict compatibility before meeting someone

Two speed-dating studies asked participants to fill out a questionnaire with over 100 items about their preferences in a partner before any meetings took place. These questionnaires could only reveal how likely someone is to like others in general, and how popular they tend to be — they couldn’t predict whether two specific people would hit it off. You won't know whether you're compatible until you meet each other, so you need to meet a few more people.

Cost

No cost at all. Spend time getting to know several people…

Benefit

In two speed-dating studies, participants filled out more than 100 self-report scales related to partner choic…

Cost

No cost at all. Spend time getting to know several people instead of obsessing over just one. The hard part is resisting the urge to fixate on a single person.

Benefit

In two speed-dating studies, participants filled out more than 100 self-report scales related to partner choice before meeting. Researchers used a random-forest model (an algorithm for finding patterns) to calculate. They could calculate “how easily a person likes others overall”; these questionnaires accounted for 4%–18% of the variance. Variance is the difference between people; the questionnaires explain only a small part of it. They could also calculate “how popular a person is overall,” accounting for 7%–27%. But “whether these two specific people click” could not be calculated; no combination of pre-meeting traits and preferences worked. The same researchers earlier ran another speed-dating experiment. Participants reported their own ideal-type preferences beforehand, such as valuing looks or economic prospects. That preference did not predict their interest in a specific person on the spot.

Original sources

Joel S, Eastwick PW, Finkel EJ (2017). Is romantic desire predictable? Machine learning applied to initial romantic attraction. Psychological Science, 28(10), 1478-1489. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797617714580;Eastwick PW, Finkel EJ (2008). Sex differences in mate preferences revisited: do people know what they initially desire in a romantic partner? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 94(2), 245-264. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.94.2.245

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Book note

Both studies clearly state that compatibility cannot be predicted before meeting someone — they do not claim that all efforts to predict it are futile. Since true compatibility can only be determined by face-to-face interaction, it makes far more sense to invest time in meeting multiple people individually rather than placing all hopes on just one. Keep in mind that all study participants were university students from Western countries; China’s dating environment differs significantly, so these findings should be applied with some caution.

My note