05Evidence A

Not buying lottery tickets

Regulations set minimum prize-pool shares of sales at 50% for number-based lotto games, 65% for instant-win tickets and 73% for sports-prediction games. For every 1 yuan spent on Double Color Ball, your long-term average return is only 0.51 yuan, resulting in a stable loss of 49%. In 2024, a total of 623.486 billion yuan in lottery tickets were sold nationwide in China, of which 161.031 billion yuan went directly into the public welfare fund; this portion is not included in the prize pool.

Cost

It costs nothing. Not buying means you save money.

Benefit

Fiscal regulations set minimum payout ratios: 50% for lottery and number-based games, 65% for instant-win game…

Cost

It costs nothing. Not buying means you save money.

Benefit

Fiscal regulations set minimum payout ratios: 50% for lottery and number-based games, 65% for instant-win games, and 73% for wagering games. For the Double Color Ball game, 51% of sales revenue is allocated to prizes, which means only 51 yuan out of every 100 yuan spent is paid out as winnings. On a personal level, this translates to an average return of just 0.51 yuan per 1 yuan spent over time — a net loss of 49%. In 2024, total lottery sales in China reached 623.486 billion yuan; 161.031 billion yuan of that amount was earmarked for public welfare and never returned to players (China, 2024).

Original sources

财政部 (2015). 关于规范和加强彩票资金构成比例管理的通知(财综〔2015〕94 号). http://m.mof.gov.cn/czxw/201511/t20151113_1560814.htm;财政部 (2025). 财政部公告 2025 年第 8 号(2024 年彩票公益金筹集分配情况). http://zhs.mof.gov.cn/zhengcefabu/202508/t20250828_3970977.htm;中国福利彩票双色球游戏规则(第十四条). https://mzj.nc.gov.cn/ncsmzj/flcp/202111/5dccc1a5da89434e94a62f8ea0e5887e.shtml

Open source link
Book note

Over the long run, buying lottery tickets guarantees a financial loss; this is a fixed rule of the system and has nothing to do with luck. Buying tickets is fine if you treat it as a form of entertainment costing 2 yuan per play, but it should never be viewed as a way to invest or save money.

My note