05Evidence A

Not buying lottery tickets

According to regulations, at least 50% of sales revenue from lottery games must be paid out as prizes; for the Double Color Ball game, this figure is 51%. In other words, for every 1 yuan you spend, you can expect to receive back only 0.51 yuan on average over time — meaning you lose 49% of your money. In 2024, China sold 623.486 billion yuan worth of lottery tickets; of that amount, 161.031 billion yuan went directly into public welfare funds and was never distributed as prizes.

Cost

It costs nothing. Not buying means you save money.

Benefit

Fiscal regulations set minimum payout ratios: 50% for lottery and number-based games, 65% for instant-win game…

Cost

It costs nothing. Not buying means you save money.

Benefit

Fiscal regulations set minimum payout ratios: 50% for lottery and number-based games, 65% for instant-win games, and 73% for wagering games. For the Double Color Ball game, 51% of sales revenue is allocated to prizes, which means only 51 yuan out of every 100 yuan spent is paid out as winnings. On a personal level, this translates to an average return of just 0.51 yuan per 1 yuan spent over time — a net loss of 49%. In 2024, total lottery sales in China reached 623.486 billion yuan; 161.031 billion yuan of that amount was earmarked for public welfare and never returned to players (China, 2024).

Original sources

财政部 (2015). 关于规范和加强彩票资金构成比例管理的通知(财综〔2015〕94 号). http://m.mof.gov.cn/czxw/201511/t20151113_1560814.htm;财政部 (2025). 财政部公告 2025 年第 8 号(2024 年彩票公益金筹集分配情况). http://zhs.mof.gov.cn/zhengcefabu/202508/t20250828_3970977.htm;中国福利彩票双色球游戏规则(第十四条). https://mzj.nc.gov.cn/ncsmzj/flcp/202111/5dccc1a5da89434e94a62f8ea0e5887e.shtml

Open source link
Book note

Over the long run, buying lottery tickets guarantees a financial loss; this is a fixed rule of the system and has nothing to do with luck. Buying tickets is fine if you treat it as a form of entertainment costing 2 yuan per play, but it should never be viewed as a way to invest or save money.

My note